2.6.13

Net Neutrality and startups

How much power should the operator have? I was involved in related discussions for some ten or more years at previous job.
So let me emphasize first that I have nothing against operator business.
The problem, however, is some kind of relative instability: either the operator is a bitpipe which neither they nor the investors like, or then they have significant power and vertical integration happens which seems to be bad for innovation. Unluckily there are few middle-ground examples.

The story outlines that the consumer may be sold service bundles with some services as operator-preferred, with better QoS. 
Firstly, it would be naive to think that there would be only some such service plans sold, it is easy to see that this is where the operators would focus on with collaborative efforts.

Why is this important? What has changed?
After the Nokia layoffs, the Finnish startup scene has been remarkably lively and this has been noted by international media too. 
But now there are dark clouds in the horizon with this emerging (Finnish) Net Neutrality issue.
Then why is this an issue not only for the netflixes and skypes? The answer is simple: this current debate and its outcome will impact everyone. Most startups are partly or fully web-based or their value proposition is based on a web service. And now, technology will allow the easy integration of realtime functionality to web apps.
This has been possible until now of course, but it will now happen in a smooth transparent easy-to-use way for developers, thanks to the WebRTC standard.
It is no wonder that e.g. Google, Mozilla seem to be keen to drive forward the WebRTC. They seem to see a vision where isolated non-compatible VoIP (and video) islands is replaced by dynamic apps having realtime components which will be compatible for the consumers.
This change will apply to companies, big and small alike. And this is especially important to make happen the right way in Finland, as our future depends on innovation taking place in the startups and small companies which should be treated on equal terms.
A non-value adding "bitpipe tax" by operators will prove harmful for the startup scene.

Of course a similar-type discussion is on-going in the USA. According to the Helsingin Sanomat story, Barack Obama is here against treating the bits flowing in the Internet differently, depending if they are operator-preferred or not.
This makes perfect sense. In the USA, the operator industry has lost tens of thousands of jobs, while the Internet-oriented startups are creating a major boost in productivity. 

So, we have a similar discussion ahead of us in Finland. Of course, the operator camp will downplay the impact of regulation-related decisions ahead. 
However, let's note here that besides high hopes on new innovative companies, the Finnish communications market is also vulnerable as it is less attractive for alternative providers than for e.g. the UK market.

In Finland, it is widely acknowledged that growth will emerge from small and medium-sized growth companies. The risk scenario is that an application by such companies would need "operator approval" to perform well, allowing in essence an operator tax, is a scary one. 
Domestic regulation could be more strict in Finland than in competing EU markets or in the USA. Interestingly, there seems to be debate in the EU Commission on the topic.
In such a market, one could ask how this would motivate a Finnish company with some initial success to stay in Finland.


It is annoying to read the argumentation from telecom industry which has methodologically laid off thousands of people over recent years. Their lobby, FICOM, is arguing that new methods are needed to make capacity management successful. It is easy to note that for some reason, current setup is working well as seen by the innovative companies and the consumer. Skype video calls have dominated in popularity similar telecom-centric services in the market place.

One does not want to throw good money after bad. It is important to understand that the true role of the telco operator is that of a utility. Let Finnish innovation happen unharmed!


24.5.13

One billion WebRTC devices cannot be wrong...or?


So Google estimates there could be  1.000.000 WebRTC devices by end of 2013. One could criticise this as overly optimistic, but the numbers could be big still.
But how many is enough? The answer could be seen in at least a couple of ways:
- A needs to contact a well-known B who may or may not have a WebRTC device. If not WebRTC, then via gateway (a lot more clumsy), sol this could be difficult
- A needs to contact some B, like in playing a game where one wants to play against someone. This is quite good scenario for take-up if one looks the Chrome and Firefox market shares
- the take-up will be determined by network effecs. Not Metcalfes Law, but Reed's Law. Again, one should think of the winning user scenario...



26.3.13

Google vs. Nokia IP clash: circle closes


So, Google and Nokia seem to be clashing over the VP8 codec which is planned for the WebRTC standard.
Or actually, Google has e.g. Mozilla Foundation as its WebRTC partner, along with others. Nokia collaborates with Microsoft, which has been promoting an alternative approach to WebRTC.
However, we do not know if Nokia and Microsoft collaborate in this particular topic.
Being personally based in Finland, the history is interesting. I have been informed by a person closely involved, that actually Google's VP8 codec was developed by Finland-based Hantro.
Hantro was acquired by On2.
Then, On2 was acquired by Google. 

What is the conclusion? We can develop and innovate demanding software in Finland.
And not only for Nokia, there are actually quite a lot cooking here...

8.3.13

2013: The optimistic scenario for WebRTC takeup


A friend of mine told me his guess is that it takes still some two three years maybe that WebRTC is a factor in the markets.
Let's challenge this view a bit.
What it takes for WebRTC to enter markets is:

  1. Credible interop from prestandard versions. Firefox and Chrome have demonstrated this.
  2. Codecs are settled. Seems VP8 deal closes this issue.
  3. NAT/Firewall traversal is not an issue. Seems that it won't.
  4. There are enough WebRTC-dedicated companies to create a credible market. Well, there are tens of those and some acquired by companies like Yahoo and Telefonica.
  5. Endpoints will have WebRTC-enabled software. Updated over-the-air.
  6. The endpoints need to be able to process the voice and the video. This will be interesting to follow. A realtime app on top of the browser layer could be a challenge. It will be interesting what kind of hardware integrations we will see. But if even the early WebRTC Android versions run in a Nexus 4, then the issue could still be getting adequate operating times. 
  7. There has to be a realtime IP bitpipes available. Well, wifi has been there for years and LTE is being rolled out.
  8. There has to be network-to-network interop. Well, that is not so. That's the beauty of it. In telecomms, that is one important factor slowing down the evolution. In WebRTC, we talk of dynamic islands. A and B go to same web site, download same WebRTC signaling and off they go. 
So it seems that 2013 could be the year for first roll-outs and wide roll-out in 2014, including also mobile. Unless, of course we see an unheard-of wave of IPR lawsuits.


25.2.13

Mozilla+Ericsson demo WebRTC...how about operator identity?




It is interesting to try to see beyond these demos.
A key moment in this video is around 1:17, when the speaker says that "because the operators customers are logged in their network, the (operator customer) user can log in with a single click with her  mobile number"...
Does that mean somehow linking access network authentication with service layer?
Well, could be. But there is the Wi-Fi access which is SIM-agnostic.

<deleted>
Therefore, we could argue that the answer is Open ID.
Actually, Open ID is the truly open alternative for the Web, so of course it makes sense for WebRTC, too.
<deleted>

Yes, at first I thought Open ID might be used here, but Mozilla's Persona is more likely.


And of course, we have the Firefox OS devices coming up too.
Personally, I don't expect this to mean that WebRTC will appear in mobile devices in the short run.
It will get there. Question is if the launches happen in MWC 2014 or earlier?

Anyway, the operators and open source guys are looking to neutralize the branded software players. 


6.2.13

Chrome talks WebRTC to Firefox!



Chrome talks to Firefox and viceversa!

But actually, in WebRTC world the C2B and B2C cases will be hugely important, so it may be that this will not turn out so relevant as it seems.
However, this is certainly a great boost for WebRTC initiative.
It is easy to imagine Opera joining the interop. Now let's just ask: what does this mean to Microsoft?
The major risk for WebRTC is the codec-related potential patent wars.


25.1.13

Yahoo gives up on VoIP and goes VoIP...WebRTC that is...

Yahoo acquired WebRTC technology with OnAir in December.


Yahoo recently acquired OnTheAir, a startup that offers interactive live video over the Web, in a move that shows the company’s commitment to increasing its mobile technology offerings.
OnTheAir, which uses WebRTC technology, is the second key acquisition by Yahoo under the watch of new CEO Marissa Mayer. 

Just learned that Yahoo Voice is shutting down at the end of January. Yahoo! will no longer offer Phone In and Phone Out services to our users, although free Messenger-to-Messenger calls will still be available through your Yahoo! Messenger service.   

Yahoo VoIP direction is clear. From thick clients to Web.


8.1.13

Ads in Facebook call? Who wants that?

Interesting view on why Facebook is implementing VoIP. 


From the story:


There's a few ways Facebook could make money off of this too. It could offer low-cost, off-net VoIP calling services, similar to the way Skype does. This could allow a user to drop to the lowest-cost voice plan and just make calls over VoIP. The cost of data plan overages could make this unattractive, but if a user utilized the service only when connected over WiFi, it could significantly reduce the cost of calling from a cell phone. Another idea could be to somehow insert ads into the interface or a short one at the start of the call. However they do it, this might be Facebook's fastest path to being able to monetize mobile.
The idea of insterting ads with phone calls was trialed in the late 90s, if I remember right. I have a hard time seeing any success in that.
Why  would Facebook not want to connect consumers with businesses with easy to make voice call? A lot easier way to monetise.
Fair enough, you argue that this will get expensive for the mom&pop store to handle all those call. Well, let's put it this way: sure and there are smart folks working to make it feasible...

7.1.13

Why is Facebook doing VoIP?


Facebook has started to offer voice messaging in some markets with apparently plans to offer VoIP too in near future.

The voice messaging is obviously a smart usability enhancement. Rather than typing text, say something.
The realtime bi-directional VoIP is a different animal.

There are some factors for and against full VoIP by Facebook happening in the markets.

Pro:
+ may generate more service stickiness
+ one more modality to communicate, text has been there quite a while
+ Facebook may quite well be so much more powerful that the operators cannot stop it
+ WebRTC is around the corner and as an open technology may steal the middleman position Facebook has envisioned for itself between companies and consumers. The game around WebRTC is evolving to an interesting one

Cons:
- operators are an important distribution channel for Facebook in many markets (but what can they do?)
- questionable use case.  People may use social networking separate from realtime communications and prefer avoiding phone calls

I believe the key driver is Facebook's will to remain between the consumer and businesses.
This is hard to argue against, one needs only to look at Google to understand why.