8.3.13

2013: The optimistic scenario for WebRTC takeup


A friend of mine told me his guess is that it takes still some two three years maybe that WebRTC is a factor in the markets.
Let's challenge this view a bit.
What it takes for WebRTC to enter markets is:

  1. Credible interop from prestandard versions. Firefox and Chrome have demonstrated this.
  2. Codecs are settled. Seems VP8 deal closes this issue.
  3. NAT/Firewall traversal is not an issue. Seems that it won't.
  4. There are enough WebRTC-dedicated companies to create a credible market. Well, there are tens of those and some acquired by companies like Yahoo and Telefonica.
  5. Endpoints will have WebRTC-enabled software. Updated over-the-air.
  6. The endpoints need to be able to process the voice and the video. This will be interesting to follow. A realtime app on top of the browser layer could be a challenge. It will be interesting what kind of hardware integrations we will see. But if even the early WebRTC Android versions run in a Nexus 4, then the issue could still be getting adequate operating times. 
  7. There has to be a realtime IP bitpipes available. Well, wifi has been there for years and LTE is being rolled out.
  8. There has to be network-to-network interop. Well, that is not so. That's the beauty of it. In telecomms, that is one important factor slowing down the evolution. In WebRTC, we talk of dynamic islands. A and B go to same web site, download same WebRTC signaling and off they go. 
So it seems that 2013 could be the year for first roll-outs and wide roll-out in 2014, including also mobile. Unless, of course we see an unheard-of wave of IPR lawsuits.


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